Introduction
The annual Business Leaders Outlook survey conducted by J.P. Morgan has consistently provided valuable insights into the sentiments of U.S. midsize and small business leaders. The 2026 edition, surveyed from November 11-26, 2025, with 1,002 respondents, indicates a robust optimism
Revenue Expectations
According to the survey, a remarkable 73% of U.S. midsize business leaders expect revenue increases in 2026. This optimism marks a significant shift from the previous year's volatility, characterized by inflation and geopolitical tensions. The survey highlights that:
- Only 39% of leaders expressed optimism about the national economy, a decrease from previous highs.
- Despite this, 71% of respondents are confident in their own company's performance.
- Concerns about economic uncertainty remain high, with 49% of leaders citing it as a primary concern.
These figures suggest that while the broader economic landscape may be uncertain, midsize businesses are finding ways to navigate these challenges and position themselves for growth.
Profit Projections
In addition to revenue growth, the survey indicates that 64% of business leaders anticipate higher profits in 2026. This positive outlook is supported by several factors:
- 48% of leaders plan to expand their workforce, indicating a commitment to growth and investment in human capital.
- 58% are looking to introduce new products or services, showcasing innovation as a key driver of profitability.
- 39% of leaders cite mergers and acquisitions as a growth strategy, up 8 points from the previous year.
These projections reflect a proactive approach among midsize businesses, as they seek to capitalize on emerging opportunities despite economic headwinds.
Adoption of AI
One of the most significant trends highlighted in the 2026 Business Leaders Outlook is the planned adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Business leaders recognize the potential of AI to enhance operational efficiency and drive innovation. Key insights include:
- AI adoption is seen as a critical component of growth strategies, with many leaders prioritizing its implementation in their operations.
- Companies are exploring creative ways to leverage AI to improve customer experiences and streamline processes.
- Melissa Smith, Co-Head of Commercial Banking at J.P. Morgan, noted, "There’s a real sense of momentum across the middle market as business leaders prepare to set ambitious growth plans in motion. Companies are thinking creatively about how to position themselves for the future as they navigate complex macroeconomic factors."
This focus on AI adoption underscores the importance of technology in driving business growth and competitiveness in the coming years.
Workforce and M&A Plans
The survey also reveals that workforce expansion and M&A are at the forefront of business leaders' strategies for 2026. Specifically:
- 48% of leaders plan to expand their workforce, reflecting a commitment to investing in talent and resources.
- 39% are considering mergers and acquisitions as a means to enhance their market position and drive growth.
- 53% are focused on market expansion, indicating a desire to reach new customers and explore untapped markets.
These strategies highlight the resilience and adaptability of midsize businesses as they navigate a fragmented global landscape characterized by persistent inflation pressures.
Conclusion
The 2026 Business Leaders Outlook from J.P. Morgan paints a picture of optimism among U.S. midsize business leaders, who are preparing for growth despite economic uncertainties. With 73% expecting revenue increases and 64% anticipating higher profits, these leaders are embracing AI adoption, workforce expansion, and M&A as key strategies for success. As they navigate the complexities of the economic landscape, their proactive approach and commitment to innovation will be crucial in shaping the future of business in the United States.
Key Takeaways
- 73% of midsize business leaders expect revenue growth in 2026.
- 64% anticipate higher profits, driven by workforce expansion and innovation.
- AI adoption is a critical focus for enhancing operational efficiency.
- Workforce expansion and M&A are key strategies for navigating economic challenges.
FAQ
What is the Business Leaders Outlook?
The Business Leaders Outlook is an annual survey conducted by J.P. Morgan that gathers insights from midsize and small business leaders about their expectations for the upcoming year.
Why is AI adoption important for businesses?
AI adoption is vital for businesses as it enhances operational efficiency, drives innovation, and improves customer experiences, positioning companies for future growth.
What trends are shaping the 2026 Business Leaders Outlook?
Key trends include revenue growth expectations, profit projections, AI adoption, and strategies for workforce expansion and mergers and acquisitions.
Sources
- Automated Pipeline
- JPMorgan's 2026 Outlook: Middle Market Holds Steady as Tariffs and Tech Redefine the Playbook
- 2026 Business Leaders Outlook | Chase for Business
- JPMorganChase Survey: U.S. Business Leaders Signal Optimism
- Business Leaders Outlook Expectations & Trends by Country
- Source: privatebank.jpmorgan.com
